Trump presidency expected to be bad news for SA
The US would become much more protectionist and isolationist, Daniel Silke warns.
Economists and analysts agree the re-election of Donald Trump as US president would pose challenges for SA’s diplomatic and trade fortunes.
US vice-president Kamala Harris wasted no time in launching her 2024 presidential campaign, seeking the support of fellow Democrats with the backing of President Joe Biden after he withdrew from the race amid concerns about his age and health. The US has yet to elect a woman president in its 248-year history.
Biden dropped his faltering re-election bid on Sunday, amid intensifying opposition within his own Democratic Party, and endorsed Harris to replace him as the party’s candidate against Trump, who is the Republican nominee.
Biden, 81, in a post on social media, said he would remain in his role as president and commander-in-chief until his term ended in January 2025 and would address the US later this week.
Opinion polls had showed a tight race between Trump and Biden at a national level, but Biden was trailing in the battleground states, which are likely to determine the winner.
At a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a gunman was able to scale the roof of a building outside the Secret Service perimeter before opening fire on Trump, clipping his ear, killing a rally-goer and wounding several others.
US economist George Brown said that the assassination attempt against Trump had won him public sympathy, which is a huge advantage going into the vote.
“Donald Trump still appears to be the likelier winner. The recent assassination attempt has given his campaign considerable momentum that could carry him through to the November election. Given Trump’s lead in the polls, we set out our key economic expectations if there were to be a Trump victory,” Brown said.
A second Trump presidency would cause an even stronger push for protectionism in the US.
“The central plank of Trump’s economic agenda is protectionism. As president, he cited national security concerns to raise tariffs under so-called section 232 powers. Beijing was the most common target, with the average tariff levied on imports from China climbing from 3% to nearly 20% during his term.
“If re-elected, Trump has proposed to hike this to 60% as well as to phase out all imports of essential goods from China. In addition to this, imports from the rest of the world would be subjected to a 10% baseline tariff,” Brown said.
Political analyst Daniel Silke agreed Trump’s “isolationist” economic policies would pose a particular challenge for SA because of its support for Brics, which is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, SA, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.
“In particular, for SA, it’s the tough line in support of Brics and emergence of China as a major global superpower [that] has already [been] seen more negatively from the Republicans in the US and during the last Trump administration. In another Trump presidency, we are likely to see even greater concessions to those seen as friends of the US. In terms of trade, the US under Trump would become much more protectionist and that is not good news for SA,” Silke said.
He added that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) would also be under threat under a Trump presidency.
With Reuters