The men in arms think power emanates from the gun: EU parliament calls for a civilian transition in Sudan

While discussing the military takeover in Guinea in 2021, two experts were sure that the leader of the junta, Doumbouya, was not interested in power. I disagreed. Even though the circumstances that led to the Guinea coup were vividly different from those in the Sahel, I still believed that militaries rarely handed over power when they felt they could keep it. Even when they do, they often take it back. In Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon the military juntas are still entrenched despite promising to hand over in the early days of the coup d’états.

Currently, opposition elements in these countries are frustrated and in some instances more likely to resort to arms or support rebellions against the juntas. They realise that promises to hand over are not backed by serious commitments. Under the cover of insecurity, Mali and Burkina Faso seem to postpone elections indefinitely.

It was reported yesterday that the European Parliament is calling for a civilian transition in Sudan. While Europe’s frustration is partly coming from the refugee consequences of the war on its shores and economy, many factors signal the unwillingness of the factions to commit to civilian transition. Firstly, it was the issue of transition that sparked the war in Sudan. While the SAF and its leader, Burhan wanted a faster integration of Dagalo’s paramilitary force in the army as a major condition for transition, Dagalo wanted not less than a decade for that to happen.

This shows the prioritisation of arms in the transition process. Secondly, even though both Burhan and Dagalo have in the past mentioned that they are not interested in running for elections in the future, I doubt it—especially in the case of Burhan.

Often, military leaders put civilian politicians off guard by making such pronouncements. “Getting used” to wearing civilian suits in his visits to other countries, any keen observer will not be taking Burhan’s earlier decision not to run in future elections seriously. Dagalo sees that his economic interest is better protected if his men continue to hold their guns. With vast resources under his control, he believes that any civilian government that has a monopoly on the use of force will likely be a threat. A typical civilian transition is therefore not in his interest. Earlier in the year, the SAF accused some civilian politicians of hobnobbing with Dagalo—a situation that complicated the possibility of a transition that involves them.

The European Parliament must not just call, it must act. The factions in Sudan may not hear from Brussels.